Estimating Crime Rates from Police Reports and Victim Surveys: Progressive Convergence in Time Series Analyses

Estimating Crime Rates from Police Reports and Victim Surveys: Progressive Convergence in Time Series Analyses
Sami Ansari
March 2013

ISBN-13:  978-1-59332-588-6 / Hardcover
Dimensions:  5.5 x 8.5 / x, 264 pages

Price   $75.00

Description

Ansari tests and explains the progressive convergence between the UCR and NCVS crime data series using multi method approach and time seriesanalysis. Graphic and correlational analyses support the convergence between the two series for all categories. However, the cointegration test indicates that the series are cointegrated for burglary and are in the process of converging for robbery and violent crime. The results of autoregressive models show that police productivity in terms of crime reporting and the methodological changes in the NCVS in 1992 are significant factors that reduce the divergence between the UCR and NCVS data sets.

About the Author

Sami Ansari holds a master degree in political science and public policies and a PhD in criminal justice. He worked as a Police Chief in India and as a UN Human Right monitor in Bosnia and Herzegovina between 1992 and 2005. Dr. Ansari also worked with the Boston Police Department as a research and policy analyst. He teaches at Salem State University as a full time faculty and conducts research in the area of policing, crime measurements, comparative criminal justice, and neighborhood criminology.